Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The dollar hovers near 99.5 as the yen strengthens and intervention risks rise.
• Remarks by John Williams point to continued easing in U.S. inflation.
• Markets are still pricing in roughly a two-thirds probability of a U.S. rate hike this month.
• Gold is trading near $4,400, benefiting from the weaker dollar and lower bond yields.
• Brent crude is trading near $94, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is near $90.
• Bitcoin is falling below $77,000 as outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) resume.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. dollar index fell to around 99.5 on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session, as a sharp rise in the Japanese yen put pressure on the U.S. currency amid speculation that Japanese authorities may be prepared to intervene again to support the yen.
  • In the United States, New York Fed President John Williams said there is evidence that inflation continues to ease as the impact of tariffs fades, while higher energy prices have yet to broadly feed through to the services sector.
  • Data released on Wednesday showed a slowdown in U.S. private-sector employment growth in August, adding some pressure to expectations for tighter monetary policy.
  • However, markets are still pricing in roughly a two-thirds probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month following hawkish remarks from Kevin Warsh.
  • Investors’ attention today is turning to U.S. jobless claims data and services-sector indicators, ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which will be a key factor in determining the outlook for interest rates.
  • Meanwhile, the easing of the sharp rise in oil prices following President Donald Trump’s remarks that the recent attacks on Iran would be short-lived helped alleviate some inflation concerns and reduced demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

• Gold:
  • Gold traded near $4,400 per ounce on Thursday after rebounding in the previous session, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields.
  • Comments from New York Fed President John Williams, which pointed to continued improvement in the inflation outlook, also helped ease pressure from expectations of a rate hike, providing some support for the precious metal.
  • However, markets are still pricing in a relatively high probability of a rate increase this month, limiting gold’s ability to post stronger gains.
  • The situation in the Middle East also remains an important factor. Continued tensions between the United States and Iran are supporting safe-haven demand for gold, while any further decline in oil prices could reduce inflation risks and provide additional support for the metal.

• Oil:
  • Brent crude traded near $94 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $90, following three consecutive sessions of gains as markets continued to assess geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
  • President Donald Trump said the recent attacks on Iran would be short-lived, while stressing that the United States remains prepared to carry out additional strikes if necessary. The comments slightly eased concerns over a prolonged escalation.
  • The United States launched new strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz this week, while Tehran responded with drones and missiles targeting U.S. bases in the region.
  • Despite the renewed hostilities, crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued at an estimated rate of around 8 million barrels per day, helping to prevent a more significant disruption to supplies.
  • In the United States, official data showed that crude oil inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, marking the first decline since late July and providing additional support for prices.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin fell below $77,000 at the beginning of September after its strong performance in August, as outflows from U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) resumed.
  • Bitcoin gained around 25% in August, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $3.52 billion in inflows during the month, bringing total assets under management to around $99.6 billion.
  • However, the start of September saw approximately $236.5 million in outflows, contributing to increased downward pressure on the price.
  • At the same time, on-chain data points to a weekly bullish divergence and elevated levels of unrealized losses—conditions that have historically been observed near certain market bottoms.
  • However, realized losses remain limited, meaning a bottom has not yet been clearly confirmed.
  • Institutional liquidity and the activity of large holders also remain key factors in determining the market’s direction, with downside risks persisting if outflows continue and spot demand remains weak. 

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

From the United States

• Initial Jobless Claims — 15:30
• S&P Global Services PMI (August) — 16:45
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (August) — 17:00
• Federal Reserve Balance Sheet — 23:30

From Canada

• Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision — 16:45

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Bearish
• Time Frame: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 4,422.65
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,449.20
• Targets: 4,480.98, then 4,516.12
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,407.69
• Targets: 4,373.51, then 4,340.77
• Note: Gold is rebounding but remains below the key moving average. A break above 4,449.20 would support further recovery, while a break below 4,407.69 would resume the downtrend.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bullish
• Time Frame: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 90.61
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 91.86
• Targets: 93.58, then 95.48
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 89.73
• Targets: 87.88, then 86.11
• Note: Oil maintains a bullish structure despite the recent correction. The upside bias remains intact above 89.73, while a breakout above 91.86 would support a continuation of the uptrend toward higher levels.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Time Frame: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.16061
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.16159
• Targets: 1.16438, then 1.16791
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.15835
• Targets: 1.15494, then 1.15200
• Note: The price is attempting to recover but remains below the key moving average. A breakout above 1.16159 would support an extension of the bullish correction, while a break below 1.15835 would bring renewed selling pressure. 

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Time Frame: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.34961
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.35096
• Targets: 1.35425, then 1.35789
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.34733
• Targets: 1.34379, then 1.34040
• Note: The overall trend remains bearish, with the price below the moving averages. Therefore, the preference remains for selling below 1.35096, while a break below 1.34733 would support a continuation of the downtrend.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bearish
• Time Frame: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 29,116.09
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,278.61
• Targets: 29,411.36, then 29,536.56
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 28,985.48
• Targets: 28,817.51, then 28,607.75
• Note: The index remains below the moving averages with a bearish price structure. A breakout above 29,278.61 is required to improve the outlook, while a break below 28,985.48 would favor a resumption of the downtrend.