Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Key Headlines:

• The dollar steadies near 99 amid rising safe-haven demand and the tightening of US sanctions on Iran.
• US debt concerns and the continuation of the bond buyback programme are limiting the dollar’s strength.
• Gold moves past $4,650 and reaches its highest level in more than three months.
• The new US sanctions on Iran bring supply risks back to the forefront of energy markets.
• Brent crude is near $91 and West Texas near $84.
• Bitcoin holds its bullish momentum, with large liquidation levels between $74,858 and $82,648.

Fundamental Analysis

• The Dollar and Monetary Policy
  • The dollar index steadied near the 99 level on Tuesday after posting some gains in the previous session, supported by rising safe-haven demand as the United States moves to isolate Iran from the global financial system, which has again highlighted the pivotal role of the dollar in international trade and transactions.
  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to expand economic pressure on Iran by imposing sanctions targeting countries that continue to trade with the Islamic Republic, in a step aimed at increasing Tehran’s isolation and pressing it to return to negotiations.
  • Nevertheless, the dollar remained close to its lowest levels in three months, with continued concerns related to US debt after the Treasury Department expanded its buyback programme of long-term government debt with the aim of containing high borrowing costs.
  • Bessent indicated the department’s readiness to increase the buyback operations further, alongside a long-term fiscal plan that is expected, although markets still doubt the ability of these measures to provide a permanent solution to the problem of debt and funding costs.
  • Investors’ attention this week turns to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, in addition to the remarks of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium, for fresh signals on the path of monetary policy and interest rates.

• Gold:
  • Gold rose above the $4,650 per ounce level on Tuesday, recording its highest level in more than three months, as it continued to benefit from concerns related to US debt, the weakness of the dollar and government interventions in the bond market.
  • The buyback operations of long-term Treasury bonds have returned attention to what is known as the currency debasement trade, with investors turning to gold as an alternative store of value amid concerns related to US fiscal sustainability.
  • Gold-backed exchange-traded funds have also recorded an increase in inflows over recent weeks, which points to broadening investor participation and continued strong demand for the precious metal.
  • Gold also remains supported by the geopolitical uncertainty related to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, while the rise in oil prices and the inflation resulting from it could act as a factor limiting gains if it leads to a return of expectations for monetary policy tightening.

• Oil:
  • Brent crude traded near $91 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate moved near $84, with the recent wave of declines halting after the United States intensified its economic pressure on Iran and its trading partners.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to impose sanctions targeting countries that continue to trade with Iran, while President Donald Trump said that those countries would be given a period of time to cut their ties with Tehran before facing unilateral US sanctions.
  • Markets remain uncertain as to whether the new sanctions will accelerate the reaching of a settlement between the United States and Iran or lead to further escalation and delay the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Supply risks remain elevated, following reports that an oil tanker was struck and disabled near the Sultanate of Oman, alongside an announcement by Iran-backed Houthi militants that they had targeted a giant Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea.

• Bitcoin
  • Bitcoin is holding its positive momentum as it continues to benefit from the weakness of the dollar and the renewed debate over the use of digital assets as a hedge against the decline in the purchasing power of traditional currencies.
  • The main liquidation levels are currently concentrated around two important areas, where a rise in Bitcoin above $82,648 could lead to the liquidation of short positions worth close to $1.37 billion, which could reinforce the upward move as a result of the short squeeze.
  • On the other hand, a fall in the price below $74,858 could lead to the liquidation of long positions worth close to $2.21 billion across the main centralised trading platforms, which makes this area important for monitoring downside risks.
  • Bitcoin also closed the week above the 50-week exponential moving average near $77,251 for the first time since November 2025, which strengthened the positive technical signals and pushed the currency toward recording its strongest performance during the month of August since 2017.
  • Continued trading above the moving average and the current support levels remains an important factor in maintaining the upward trend, while leverage, trading volumes and liquidation levels must be monitored because of the potential for any strong move in either direction to be amplified.

Today’s Economic Data (GMT+3 / KSA time)

• From Germany, German Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2) 09:00
• From the United States of America, CB Consumer Confidence Index (August) 17:00
• From the United States of America, New Home Sales (July) 17:00

GOLD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 4,639.13
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 4,660.78
• Targets: 4,692.56 then 4,727.71
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 4,619.27
• Targets: 4,585.09 then 4,552.35
• Note: The general trend for gold is still bullish with the price remaining above the main moving averages. A break above 4,660.78 supports a resumption of the advance, while a break below 4,619.27 points to a deeper correction toward the support areas.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 85.88
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 87.02
• Targets: 88.81 then 90.71
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 84.96
• Targets: 83.11 then 81.33
• Note: Oil is trading below the main moving averages with the downward momentum continuing, so a break above 87.02 is required to weaken the negative scenario, while a break below 84.96 confirms an extension of the decline toward 83.11 and then 81.33.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 1.16538
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 1.16696
• Targets: 1.16987 then 1.17340
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.16386
• Targets: 1.16043 then 1.15750
• Note: The price is trading below the short-term moving averages with clear selling pressure, so a break above 1.16696 restores the positive momentum, while a break below 1.16386 supports a continuation of the decline toward the next support areas.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bearish corrective
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 1.36305
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 1.36491
• Targets: 1.36820 then 1.37185
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.36129
• Targets: 1.35775 then 1.35435
• Note: The price is moving below the short-term moving averages with the main support remaining at 1.36129. A break above 1.36491 returns the advantage to the buyers, while a break of the support supports an extension of the downward move.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 29,198.45
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 29,324.85
• Targets: 29,457.60 then 29,582.80
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 29,031.72
• Targets: 28,863.76 then 28,653.99
• Note: The general trend is still bearish and the price is below the main moving averages despite the recent rebound, so a break above 29,324.85 is required to improve the picture, while a break below 29,031.72 restores selling pressure toward the lower supports.