Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• Dollar hovers near a three-month low amid U.S. Treasury intervention.
• Lower Treasury yields keep gold above $4,500.
• Fed minutes highlight ongoing rate-hike divisions.
• S.-Iran tensions sustain inflation and energy risks.
• Oil holds gains as the Hormuz stalemate continues.
• Brent nears $91, while WTI trades around $85.Higher U.S. inventories cap oil gains.
• Bitcoin tests key levels amid liquidations and reserve debate.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index remained steady near 98.8 during Thursday’s session, hovering close to a three-month low after the U.S. government moved to contain long-term borrowing costs by expanding its Treasury buyback program.
  • The U.S. Treasury announced that it will at least double the size of its buybacks of long-term securities with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years in the coming months, after the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 earlier this week.
  • The move signals the Treasury’s willingness to play a more active role in improving bond market liquidity and easing pressure on long-term yields, contributing to lower borrowing costs and weighing on the dollar.
  • Meanwhile, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting highlighted ongoing divisions within the central bank, with some policymakers arguing that additional rate hikes this year may be necessary to prevent stronger inflationary pressures from emerging.
  • This suggests that the decline in yields does not necessarily signal a full shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy, particularly as energy-price risks and Middle East tensions remain in focus.

• Geopolitical Developments:
  • Geopolitically, tensions between the United States and Iran remained unresolved, with disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade keeping supply and inflation risks among the key market drivers.
  • President Donald Trump said oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz and indicated that talks with Tehran could resume at some point. However, the lack of a clear agreement has kept markets cautious.
  • The United Arab Emirates also announced the suspension of financial and economic transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of launching ballistic missiles at its territory, adding to economic and political pressure on Iran and raising concerns over a broader regional escalation.

• Gold:
  • Gold held above $4,500 per ounce on Thursday after surging more than 4% in the previous session, supported by a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields.
  • The U.S. Treasury’s decision to expand its long-term bond buyback program eased pressure on yields, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not pay regular income.
  • Gold also benefited from a weaker dollar near a three-month low, making the metal more attractive to investors holding other currencies.
  • Meanwhile, ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset. However, higher oil prices could revive inflation concerns and increase the risk of tighter monetary policy if price pressures persist.
  • Investors are now awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for clearer signals on the interest-rate outlook, especially after the latest meeting minutes showed that some policymakers still favored further rate hikes.

• Oil:
  • Oil prices held onto their gains on Thursday, with Brent crude trading near $91 per barrel and WTI around $85, amid continued uncertainty in the Middle East.
  • The U.S. and Iran remain locked in a political and military standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, despite President Trump’s assurances that oil continues to flow through the waterway and his willingness to resume talks in the future.
  • Meanwhile, the UAE increased pressure on Iran by suspending economic and financial transactions with Tehran, adding another layer to regional tensions.
  • Despite the elevated risks, Gulf producers have continued moving significant volumes of crude through alternative routes and less visible shipments, helping limit further price gains.
  • On the U.S. supply front, EIA data showed that crude oil inventories rose by around 4.4 million barrels last week, putting some downward pressure on prices.
  • Meanwhile, distillate inventories fell by around 1.5 million barrels to their lowest level in more than a month, pointing to continued tightness in the refined products market.
  • Oil remains caught between two opposing forces: rising U.S. inventories on one side and ongoing geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Iran on the other.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin is testing several key technical levels. A daily close above $65,419 would be a positive signal for the short-term outlook, while sustained trading above $66,922 could lead to a clearer improvement in the current technical picture.
  • However, some market data continues to point to downside risks, including weak spot demand, volatile ETF flows, and periods of negative funding rates.
  • Derivatives markets have also seen significant liquidations, with one of the largest liquidations on Hyperliquid reaching around $48.8 million.
  • Total liquidations on Binance reached around $518 million, with the majority involving short positions, while Hyperliquid recorded approximately $489 million in liquidations, also mostly from shorts.
  • The elevated liquidation volume highlights the market’s sensitivity to breakouts and sudden price moves, particularly amid continued use of leverage.
  • In another development, U.S. officials discussed potentially increasing the government’s Bitcoin holdings and possibly establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. However, no clear details have been announced regarding implementation, funding, or the timeline.
  • The $65,419 level remains important for sustaining short-term bullish momentum, while a sustained break above $66,922 would provide a stronger signal of a trend shift in favor of buyers. 

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

From the United States

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (August) — 15:30
• Initial Jobless Claims — 15:30
• Federal Reserve Balance Sheet — 23:30

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,493.12
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,508.31
• Targets: 4,540.09, then 4,575.23
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,466.80
• Targets: 4,432.62, then 4,399.88
• Note: Gold maintains a bullish structure above its key moving averages. A break above 4,508.31 supports further upside, while a break below 4,466.80 could trigger a deeper correction.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Sideways with a bullish bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 86.39
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 87.55
• Targets: 89.27, then 91.17
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 85.41
• Targets: 83.56, then 81.79
• Note: A break above 87.55 supports further upside, while a break below 85.41 could trigger a downside correction.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.16765
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.16905
• Targets: 1.17184, then 1.17537
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.16583
• Targets: 1.16239, then 1.15946
• Note: The pair remains bullish above support. A break above 1.16905 supports further upside, while a break below 1.16583 could trigger a downside correction.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.36059
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.36232
• Targets: 1.36561, then 1.36925
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.35869
• Targets: 1.35515, then 1.35176
• Note: The pair is consolidating above support. A break above 1.36232 confirms renewed upside, while a break below 1.35869 could trigger a downside correction.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 29,557.60
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,688.99
• Targets: 29,821.74, then 29,946.94
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 29,395.86
• Targets: 29,227.89, then 29,018.13
• Note: The index remains under selling pressure below 29,688.99, while a break below 29,395.86 could extend the downside.