Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The U.S. dollar holds near 99.6 ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes.
• Markets are pricing in roughly a 65% probability of a Fed rate hold in September.
• Rising global bond yields are weighing on gold.
• Gold slips below $4,350 amid inflation and financial-market concerns.
• The U.S.-Iran stalemate continues to support oil prices.
• Brent crude trades near $91 per barrel, while WTI hovers around $85.
• Ongoing attacks in the Strait of Hormuz keep supply risks elevated.
• Bitcoin trades near $64,700 as spot demand shows clear improvement.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held near 99.6 on Wednesday after touching its lowest level in more than two months earlier this week, as investors turned their attention to the July FOMC meeting minutes for fresh clues on the outlook for monetary policy and interest rates.
  • The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting, although three policymakers dissented in favor of a rate hike. Investors are now looking to the minutes for insight into the extent of the division within the committee and policymakers’ willingness to act at upcoming meetings.
  • Markets currently assign roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, after a series of weaker U.S. economic data releases prompted investors to scale back expectations for further monetary tightening.
  • Expectations for additional rate hikes before year-end have declined sharply, marking a significant shift from earlier forecasts that anticipated multiple increases in 2026.
  • Investor attention is also turning to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, with a focus on his views on inflation, growth, and elevated bond yields.
  • The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury reached its highest level in nearly 19 years this week, while government bond yields across several major economies climbed to multi-decade highs, raising concerns about borrowing costs and global fiscal conditions.
  • On the geopolitical front, markets remained cautious after President Donald Trump stated that no talks are currently underway with Iran and reaffirmed the continuation of the U.S. naval blockade, reducing expectations for a near-term agreement to end the conflict and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Gold:
  • Gold fell below $4,350 per ounce on Wednesday after dropping nearly 2% in the previous session, pressured by a sharp rise in global bond yields and growing concerns over fiscal conditions and inflation.
  • Higher yields weigh directly on gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
  • Gold also faced additional pressure from rising oil prices, as higher energy costs fuel inflation risks and increase the likelihood that interest rates remain elevated for longer, despite some weakness in U.S. economic data.
  • At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to provide support for gold, particularly amid the lack of a U.S.-Iran agreement and growing risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Investors are awaiting the FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium for greater clarity on the monetary policy outlook. A more dovish tone could ease pressure on gold, while hawkish signals may drive yields higher and weigh further on the metal.

• Oil:
  • Oil prices extended their gains during Wednesday’s trading session, with Brent crude trading near $91 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) held near $85 per barrel.
  • The rise came amid the ongoing standoff between the United States and Iran, as President Donald Trump said there are currently no negotiations underway with Tehran, reaffirming that the U.S. naval blockade remains in place.
  • Despite Trump’s remarks that the Strait of Hormuz is open and has been cleared of mines, traffic through the waterway remains limited, while security risks for transiting vessels remain elevated.
  • Iranian forces intensified their activities over the past week, with around eight attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz reportedly recorded since the beginning of the month, including vessels linked to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
  • The attacks have kept markets cautious about supply stability, particularly as any further escalation could lead to renewed disruptions to crude flows from the Persian Gulf.
  • In the United States, industry data showed that crude oil inventories fell by around 328,000 barrels last week, following a sharp increase of approximately 9.07 million barrels in the previous week.
  • The oil market outlook remains closely tied to developments in the Strait of Hormuz and any shift in the U.S.-Iranian stance. A prolonged standoff could support prices, while any meaningful negotiations could lead to a narrowing of the geopolitical risk premium.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin rose by around 0.5% to trade near $64,678, with a notable improvement in some spot-demand indicators compared with the weak levels recorded in recent weeks.
  • CryptoQuant data showed that 30-day apparent spot demand improved from approximately -206,000 BTC on July 23 to nearly -5,000 BTC, indicating a shift from deeply negative territory toward near-neutral conditions for the first time since February 2026.
  • Bitcoin also traded near $64,700 after moving within a broad range of roughly $58,000 to $66,500 since June, reflecting continued volatility without a clear directional breakout so far.
  • VanEck’s capitulation indicators showed that 8 out of 12 metrics recorded capitulation signals over the past three months, reflecting a period of significant investor stress before the recent improvement.
  • The $63,000 level remains a key short-term support zone, and holding above it is crucial for sustaining the current bullish momentum.
  • A decisive break below this level could bring renewed selling pressure, while holding above it, combined with improving spot demand, could pave the way for a retest of nearby resistance levels. 

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

From the United Kingdom

• Consumer Price Index (YoY) (July) — 09:00

From the Eurozone

• Consumer Price Index (YoY) (July) — 12:00

From the United States

• U.S. Crude Oil Inventories — 17:30
• FOMC Meeting Minutes — 21:00

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,354.86
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,368.61
• Targets: 4,400.38, then 4,435.53
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,327.10
• Targets: 4,292.91, then 4,260.17
• Note: The rebound remains corrective below 4,368.61, while a break below 4,327.10 would signal renewed downside momentum.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 86.54
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 87.81
• Targets: 89.53, then 91.44
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 85.68
• Targets: 83.83, then 82.06
• Note: Oil maintains a bullish structure above its moving averages. A break above 87.81 supports further upside, while a break below 85.68 could trigger a downside correction.

EURUSD

• Trend: Sideways with a Bullish Bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.15796
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.15958
• Targets: 1.16237, then 1.16590
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.15636
• Targets: 1.15293, then 1.14999
• Note: The pair is consolidating within a narrow range after its previous rally. A break above 1.15958 would support renewed upside, while a break below 1.15636 could trigger a deeper correction.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Sideways
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.35352
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.35537
• Targets: 1.35866, then 1.36231
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.35175
• Targets: 1.34821, then 1.34481
• Note: The pair is range-bound between 1.35537 resistance and 1.35175 support. A breakout of either level is needed to confirm the next directional move. 

NAS 100

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 29,432.34
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,625.23
• Targets: 29,757.98, then 29,883.18
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 29,332.10
• Targets: 29,164.13, then 28,954.37
• Note: The index remains bearish below 29,625.23, while a break below 29,332.10 could trigger another downside move.