Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The U.S dollar index (DXY) trades near a two-month low as rate-hike expectations fade.
• Markets increasingly favor a September rate hold amid weak U.S. data.
• Gold slips below $4,400 on broad profit-taking.
• The expiry of the U.S.-Iran agreement raises geopolitical risks.
• Brent trades near $91, while WTI hovers around $85.
• Stalled Hormuz talks support oil despite steady crude flows.
• Bitcoin reclaims its 200-day moving average and tests $65,000 resistance.
• Rising leveraged longs increase Bitcoin’s sensitivity to sharp moves.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded near the 99.5 level on Tuesday, remaining close to its lowest level in nearly two months as investors continued to scale back expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes this year following a series of weaker economic data releases.
  • Data released over the past week showed weaker U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence, while inflation readings remained relatively moderate, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may not need to tighten monetary policy in the near term.
  • Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting and no longer fully price in a rate hike before year-end, marking a significant shift from expectations just one week ago.
  • Investor focus in the coming days will shift to the July FOMC meeting minutes and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for clearer guidance on the monetary policy outlook.
  • At the same time, inflation risks remain in focus as oil prices rebound following a decline in expectations for a new agreement between the United States and Iran.
  • S. President Donald Trump stated that he is not interested in extending the temporary peace agreement, prompting markets to reassess the risks of a prolonged conflict and potential disruptions to regional energy supplies.
  • The memorandum of understanding signed in June officially expired on Monday. The agreement had granted both sides a 60-day window to negotiate a long-term peace deal, but a comprehensive settlement has yet to be reached.

• Gold:
  • Gold fell below $4,400 per ounce on Tuesday, giving up earlier gains amid broad profit-taking across the metals complex.
  • The decline came despite support from lower expectations for U.S. rate hikes, as weaker economic data and moderate inflation have eased pressure for tighter monetary policy.
  • Gold continues to benefit from investment demand and central-bank purchases, particularly from China, helping maintain a solid support base.
  • However, rising oil prices have revived some inflation concerns, limiting gold’s upside as higher prices could eventually put renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy.
  • Profit-taking following gold’s strong recent rally also weighed on Tuesday’s price action, as investors reduced positions after substantial gains in recent weeks.
  • Gold’s near-term direction will largely depend on the Jackson Hole speech and FOMC minutes, alongside developments in oil markets and the Middle East conflict.

• Oil:
  • Oil prices extended their gains on Tuesday, with Brent crude trading near $91 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around $85 per barrel.
  • The rally followed fading prospects for a new U.S.-Iran agreement after President Donald Trump said he was not interested in extending the temporary peace deal.
  • The memorandum of understanding signed in June expired without a long-term agreement, reviving concerns over a prolonged conflict and potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Meanwhile, Iran and Oman continue talks on arrangements for managing maritime traffic through the strait. However, the U.S. is not directly involved, reducing the likelihood of Washington accepting any agreement that does not guarantee unrestricted passage for vessels.
  • Despite the tensions, Middle Eastern producers continue to move millions of barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz, using more flexible shipping strategies to maintain global supply flows.
  • Continued crude flows have helped limit further price gains, but markets still price in a clear geopolitical risk amid the lack of a comprehensive political agreement.
  • Oil remains vulnerable to sharp price swings ahead: renewed escalation could push prices higher, while a resumption of meaningful negotiations could ease the risk premium. 

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin is trading near the lower end of its recent range, as long positions in the derivatives market increase and funding rates reach their highest level in nearly 20 months.
  • Higher funding rates reflect stronger bullish positioning but also leave the market more vulnerable to sharp liquidations if the price fails to sustain its upward momentum.
  • In early August, around 84% of previously withdrawn Bitcoin returned to trading wallets, boosting spot-market liquidity and rebuilding exchange balances ahead of key Federal Reserve developments.
  • Meanwhile, institutional investors remained active through over-the-counter (OTC) trading, while retail investors contributed to the increase in exchange-held Bitcoin supply.
  • Bitcoin has reclaimed its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $64,000 and is now testing key resistance in the $64,500–$65,000 range.
  • A breakout and sustained move above $65,000 would strengthen the bullish outlook, while failure to clear this zone could send Bitcoin back toward lower support levels.
  • Some indicators point to relatively overbought conditions, making near-term price action more sensitive to trading volume and liquidity flows.

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

No major economic data releases scheduled for today.

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Sideways with an upward bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,398.66
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,418.06
• Targets: 4,449.83, then 4,484.98
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,376.55
• Targets: 4,342.36, then 4,309.63
• Note: Gold is consolidating after a rebound; a break above 4,418.06 signals renewed upside, while a break below 4,376.55 favors further downside.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 86.57
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 87.64
• Targets: 89.36, then 91.26
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 85.50
• Targets: 83.65, then 81.88
• Note: Oil maintains strong bullish momentum above its moving averages. A breakout above 87.64 supports further upside, while a break below 85.50 could trigger a downside correction. 

EURUSD

• Trend: Bullish correction
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.15705
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.15904
• Targets: 1.16183, then 1.16536
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.15582
• Targets: 1.15239, then 1.14945
• Note: The pair is in a downside correction, but holding 1.15582 keeps the bullish recovery scenario intact; a break below it would signal further

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bearish correction
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.35289
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.35529
• Targets: 1.35858, then 1.36222
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.35167
• Targets: 1.34813, then 1.34473
• Note: The pair remains under selling pressure below its short-term moving averages. A break above 1.35529 would support a bullish recovery, while a break below 1.35167 would favor further downside. 

NAS 100

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 29,773.09
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 30,072.07
• Targets: 30,200.78, then around 30,300
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 29,649.70
• Targets: 29,481.74, then 29,271.97
• Note: The index has suffered a sharp decline and broken below key moving averages. Selling pressure remains dominant below 30,072.07, while a break below 29,649.70 would reinforce further downside.