Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The U.S dollar index eases toward 99.5 as Fed hike expectations fade.
• Markets price in a 67% chance of no Fed rate hike in September.
• Investors await the FOMC minutes and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.
• Gold holds below $4,400 amid mixed economic signals.
• Middle East tensions keep energy and supply risks elevated.
• Brent trades near $88, while WTI hovers around $81.
• Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue despite tensions.
• Bitcoin selling pressure eases, but spot demand remains weak.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to around 99.5 during Monday’s session, extending its decline for a third consecutive day, as weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data prompted investors to scale back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes.
  • Data released last week pointed to moderating U.S. inflation, alongside weaker consumer confidence and retail sales, raising concerns about the strength of economic activity and reducing the need for additional monetary tightening in the near term.
  • Market pricing now implies roughly a 67% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, up from less than 50% a month earlier.
  • Investor attention is now shifting to the latest FOMC meeting minutes and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for clearer signals on the future path of monetary policy.
  • Markets will also closely watch U.S. manufacturing and housing data, particularly the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Housing Market Index, for further insight into economic momentum.
  • The dollar weakened against most major currencies, posting notable declines versus the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and British pound as expectations for further Fed tightening continued to ease.

• Geopolitical Developments:
  • Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained elevated after Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon over the weekend, while the U.S. administration prepares to impose additional economic sanctions on Iran to increase pressure on Tehran.
  • The temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is set to expire later today, while negotiations to end the conflict and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled.
  • Despite the ongoing tensions, Middle Eastern producers continue to transport millions of barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, helping to contain a sharper rise in energy prices so far.

• Gold:
  • Gold traded just below $4,400 per ounce on Monday, remaining broadly stable as markets balanced weaker U.S. economic data against persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
  • The precious metal benefited from reduced expectations for U.S. rate hikes following signs of moderating inflation and weaker consumer confidence and retail sales.
  • Lower rate-hike expectations ease pressure on gold, as the prospect of less upward pressure on yields improves the relative appeal of non-yielding assets.
  • However, mixed market signals continue to shape gold’s outlook: ongoing Middle East tensions support safe-haven demand, while continued oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz limit concerns over a renewed inflationary shock.
  • Investors will focus on the FOMC minutes and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech in the coming days, with any hawkish or dovish signals likely to provide clearer direction for gold.

• Oil:
  • Oil prices held onto their gains on Monday, with Brent crude trading near $88 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around $81–$82.50 per barrel.
  • Prices were supported by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon that killed several people, including a senior Hezbollah commander.
  • The U.S. is also preparing to impose additional economic sanctions on Iran to increase pressure on Tehran, as the temporary ceasefire agreement nears expiration without a final settlement.
  • Negotiations to end the conflict and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, keeping markets cautious about the risk of further supply disruptions.
  • Meanwhile, Middle Eastern producers continue to move millions of barrels of crude through the strait, helping limit further price gains despite ongoing security risks.
  • Reports also suggest that Iran and Oman are nearing an understanding on a framework for managing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, although the United States is not directly involved in the talks.
  • Oil remains vulnerable to sharp price swings in the near term, particularly if the ceasefire expires without an extension or sanctions and attacks escalate. Conversely, any diplomatic progress could reduce the geopolitical risk premium.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin edged higher in early Asian trading as selling pressure eased, while on-chain data showed fewer transfers to exchanges and a notable decline in seller activity.
  • Spot trading volume also fell to some of its lowest levels in years, pointing to weak market liquidity despite the price recovery.
  • Meanwhile, ETF inflows remained subdued, signaling continued institutional caution and a lack of strong demand from large investors.
  • CryptoQuant data indicate that around 3.56 million Bitcoin are either long-term inactive or associated with inaccessible keys, representing roughly 17.7% of total supply and reducing the amount of Bitcoin effectively available for trading.
  • The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index remained negative for nearly 90 days, from May 19 to August 16, ending at around -0.1066%, indicating that Bitcoin was trading at a discount on Coinbase relative to Binance.
  • This points to relatively weak U.S. demand compared with other markets, despite easing on-chain selling pressure.
  • Overall, the market remains in a fragile equilibrium: selling pressure has eased, but spot and institutional demand remain weak, meaning a sustained move would likely require a clear recovery in liquidity and trading volumes. 

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

No major economic data releases scheduled for today.

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Sideways with an upward bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,393.45
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,416.52
• Targets: 4,448.29, then 4,483.44
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,375.01
• Targets: 4,340.82, then 4,308.09
• Note: Gold is consolidating above key moving averages; a break above 4,416.52 would support further upside, while a break below 4,375.01 could trigger renewed selling pressure.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Sideways with a bearish bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 83.05
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 84.50
• Targets: 86.22, then 88.12
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 82.37
• Targets: 80.52, then 78.74
• Note: Oil is trading sideways below key moving averages. A breakout above 84.50 would signal a bullish shift, while a break below 82.37 would reinforce downside pressure.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.15894
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.16011
• Targets: 1.16291, then 1.16643
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.15689
• Targets: 1.15346, then 1.15053
• Note: The pair is trading above its moving averages with clear bullish momentum. A breakout above 1.16011 would support further upside, while a break below 1.15689 could trigger a downside correction.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.35514
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.35661
• Targets: 1.35990, then 1.36354
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.35298
• Targets: 1.34944, then 1.34605
• Note: The pair is trading above its moving averages and maintaining a bullish structure. A breakout above 1.35661 would support further upside, while a break below 1.35298 could trigger a downside correction.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 30,228.61
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 30,347.94
• Targets: 30,480.69, then 30,605.89
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 30,063.73
• Targets: 29,886.84, then 29,677.07
• Note: The index maintains a clear bullish trend above its moving averages. A breakout above 30,347.94 would support further upside, while a break below 30,063.73 could trigger a downside correction.