Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The U.S. dollar holds steady near 99.9 ahead of the release of U.S. Producer Price Index data.
• Consumer inflation slows to 3.4%, reducing expectations of further rate hikes.
• The probability of a September rate hike falls to around 40%.
• Gold maintains its gains and continues to trade above $4,400 per ounce.
• S. crude oil inventories post their largest increase since January 2023.
• Brent crude trades near $88 per barrel, while WTI hovers around $83 per barrel.
• Stalled Strait of Hormuz negotiations keep geopolitical risks elevated.
• Bitcoin faces downside pressure amid weak on-chain indicators.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held steady near 99.9 during Thursday’s session following a volatile trading day, as investors awaited the release of July U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for further clues on inflation trends and the outlook for monetary policy.
  • Inflation data released on Wednesday showed that annual U.S. inflation slowed for a second consecutive month to 3.4% in July, while consumer prices rose just 0.1% month-over-month, helping to ease concerns about persistent price pressures.
  • The data prompted investors to scale back expectations for a September rate hike, with market pricing now implying roughly a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, down from around 50% the previous day.
  • Market attention is now turning to the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which will provide additional insight into upstream price pressures and production costs, potentially influencing expectations for future inflation.
  • Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices have helped ease inflation concerns, but escalating rhetoric between the United States and Iran, along with stalled negotiations, has reduced the likelihood of a near-term agreement.
  • Traders are also closely watching the Japanese yen as it approaches the 160 level against the U.S. dollar, amid ongoing speculation that Japanese authorities could intervene again to support the currency if volatility increases.

• Gold:
  • Gold remained above $4,400 per ounce during Thursday’s session, trading near its highest level in roughly ten weeks, supported by softer U.S. inflation data and reduced expectations for further interest-rate hikes.
  • The moderate Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in the near term, providing support for non-yielding assets such as gold.
  • The precious metal also benefited from the continued decline in oil prices, as lower energy costs reduce the risk of renewed inflation and increase the likelihood that interest rates will remain unchanged for longer.
  • However, gold remains sensitive to today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data. A stronger-than-expected reading could revive rate-hike expectations and weigh on the metal, while a softer reading could support further gains.
  • Geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to provide an additional layer of support, particularly as uncertainty persists over negotiations between the United States and Iran.

• Oil:
  • Brent crude traded near $88 per barrel, while WTI held around $83, as markets weighed elevated geopolitical risks against a sharp build in U.S. crude inventories.
  • S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that crude inventories surged by 17.422 million barrels in the week ended August 7, reaching approximately 424.4 million barrels—the highest level since January 2023.
  • The inventory build significantly exceeded market expectations for a draw of around 1.4 million barrels, pointing to a substantial improvement in U.S. crude supply conditions.
  • Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub rose by 1.768 million barrels, while refinery throughput increased by approximately 26,000 barrels per day.
  • Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline inventories fell by approximately 968,000 barrels to 208.7 million barrels, while distillate inventories were little changed at around 107.2 million barrels.
  • S. net crude oil imports also increased by approximately 1.768 million barrels per day, contributing to the substantial build in inventories.
  • Despite these bearish inventory figures, risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations continue to provide some support for oil prices, limiting the downside.
  • Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline inventories fell by approximately 968,000 barrels to 208.7 million barrels, while distillate inventories were little changed at around 107.2 million barrels.
  • S. net crude oil imports also increased by approximately 1.768 million barrels per day, contributing to the substantial build in inventories.
  • Despite these bearish inventory figures, risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations continue to provide some support for oil prices, limiting the downside.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin is facing heightened caution ahead of the release of U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, with demand for put options increasing as investors hedge against downside risk.
  • The options market shows a clear concentration of downside protection around $60,000, while demand for upside protection is centered near $70,000, reflecting expectations of potentially sharp moves ahead of August options expiry.
  • Long-term holder supply declined on a weekly basis for the first time in 2026, suggesting that some long-term holders have begun reducing their positions or realizing losses.
  • At the same time, the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin reached its highest level of 2026, indicating continued accumulation by large holders despite the broader market weakness.
  • The $60,000–$70,000 range remains the key zone for markets to watch, with investors closely monitoring inflation data and its impact on yields and global liquidity.

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

From the United States

• Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM (July) — 15:30
• Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY (July) — 15:30
• Initial Jobless Claims — 15:30
• Federal Reserve Balance Sheet — 23:30

Smart Technical Analysis: Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Corrective bearish move within a broader bullish trend
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,378.07
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,403.92
• Targets: 4,435.70, then 4,470.84
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,362.41
• Targets: 4,328.23, then 4,295.49
• Note: Gold is undergoing a corrective pullback after losing its short-term moving averages, while the broader structure remains bullish as long as price holds above key support zones.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Sideways within a broader bullish trend
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 84.17
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 85.24
• Targets: 86.96, then 88.86
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 83.11
• Targets: 81.26, then 79.49
• Note: Oil is trading within a sideways range following a strong rally. A breakout above 85.24 would support a resumption of the uptrend, while a break below 83.11 could pave the way for a deeper correction. 

EURUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.15154
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.15315
• Targets: 1.15620, then 1.15972
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.15018
• Targets: 1.14675, then 1.14346
• Note: The pair is trading below its moving averages amid continued downside pressure. A breakout above 1.15315 would increase the likelihood of a bullish corrective move

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.34791
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.35060
• Targets: 1.35390, then 1.35754
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.34698
• Targets: 1.34344, then 1.34005
• Note: The pair is under selling pressure and trading below its moving averages. A break below 1.34698 would support further downside. 

NAS 100

• Trend: Sideways with an upward bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 29,757.90
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,883.33
• Targets: 30,016.08, then 30,141.28
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 29,590.20
• Targets: 29,422.24, then 29,212.47
• Note: Price remains above the key moving averages while consolidating near resistance. A breakout above 29,883.33 would support further upside.