Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds steady near 99.7 ahead of key U.S. inflation data.
• Market-implied odds of a September rate hike have risen again to around 51%.
• Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials continue to support the U.S. dollar.
• Gold extends its rally, reaching its highest level in two months.
• Strong institutional demand from China is providing significant support to gold prices.
• Oil prices maintain their gains amid setbacks in U.S.–Iran negotiations.
• Brent crude is trading near $88 per barrel, while WTI crude hovers around $82 per barrel.
• Bitcoin remains stable near $65,000 as institutional inflows continue to improve.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 99.7 on Tuesday, holding onto recent gains as investors awaited a fresh round of U.S. inflation data for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
  • Market focus remains on inflation after July’s softer labor market report initially reduced expectations for additional rate hikes. However, concerns over persistent price pressures have since prompted a reassessment of the outlook.
  • According to current market pricing, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting has climbed to around 51%, up from roughly 44% in the previous session.
  • Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted that several additional rate hikes may be required to return inflation to the central bank’s 2% target, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for an extended period.
  • Market attention is now turning to Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, followed by Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) release, with both reports expected to play a key role in shaping expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
  • Meanwhile, uncertainty in the Middle East remains a significant factor influencing the inflation outlook, as efforts to end the conflict between the United States and Iran and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz continue to face obstacles.
  • S. President Donald Trump introduced new demands for Iran, including compensation for individuals killed during the conflict, after Tehran reiterated similar compensation requirements as part of the conditions for any potential agreement.
  • The escalation in negotiating demands has further clouded the prospects for a near-term deal, keeping concerns over prolonged energy supply disruptions and elevated oil prices firmly in focus.

• Gold:
  • Gold climbed toward $4,400 per ounce on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in nearly two months as strong institutional and investment demand continued to support the precious metal.
  • A significant portion of the buying interest came from China, where gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have maintained sustained net inflows, reflecting investors’ preference for gold as a hedge against volatility in other asset classes.
  • The People’s Bank of China also continued to expand its gold reserves, adding approximately 20 tons in July following a 15-tonne increase in June, marking the largest monthly accumulation since October 2023.
  • Ongoing official and institutional purchases underscore the strength of underlying demand, helping gold extend its gains despite rising U.S. rate expectations and a monetary backdrop that is typically less supportive for non-yielding assets.
  • However, inflation risks and the prospect of additional interest rate hikes remain potential headwinds for gold, particularly as oil prices rise and market expectations for a September Fed rate increase persist.
  • Gold’s near-term direction will be driven largely by upcoming U.S. inflation data. Softer-than-expected readings could reinforce the bullish momentum, while stronger inflation figures may weigh on the metal by boosting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.

• Oil:
  • Oil prices held on to their gains during Tuesday’s session, with Brent crude trading near $88 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $82 per barrel.
  • The primary source of support remained uncertainty surrounding the prospects of a U.S.-Iran agreement to end the conflict and fully restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • President Donald Trump introduced a new set of demands for Iran, including compensation related to casualties incurred during the conflict, further complicating negotiations and reducing the likelihood of a near-term agreement.
  • Trump also signaled a willingness to intensify economic pressure on Iran rather than immediately resorting to military action, aiming to secure additional concessions from Tehran regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have yet to reach a final agreement on reopening the waterway, with Tehran continuing to link the move to a broader deal with the United States.
  • Oil prices remained supported after three consecutive sessions of gains, as markets continued to worry that a failure in negotiations could trigger further supply disruptions.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin traded near $65,050, up around 3.6%, as institutional inflows improved and Bitcoin balances on exchanges fell to their lowest levels in nearly seven years.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded estimated weekly inflows of approximately $865.3 million, signaling a renewed return of institutional demand and fresh liquidity into the market.
  • Long-term investor holdings also reached record levels as exchange balances declined, pointing to a reduction in immediately available supply and a more favorable medium-term supply outlook.
  • Bitcoin faces key resistance around $65,400, with a sustained breakout and consolidation above this level likely to be important for extending the current upward momentum.
  • If the breakout succeeds, Bitcoin could target the $67,300–$69,000 range, while trading volume and order flow around these levels will be key to confirming the strength of the move.
  • Meanwhile, approximately 1,690 Bitcoin were sold between August 3 and 9 at an average price of $64,262, for a total value of around $108.6 million, reducing overall holdings to approximately 840,447 BTC.
  • Bitcoin remains sensitive to U.S. inflation data and interest-rate expectations. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could intensify pressure on risk assets, while softer inflation may support greater liquidity and stronger institutional demand.

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

From the United States:

Existing Homes Sales- 17:00

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Bullish with a downside correction
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,371.05
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,400.55
• Targets: 4,432.33, then 4,467.47
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,352.81
• Targets: 4,324.86, then 4,292.12
• Note: Gold is undergoing a downside correction following a strong rally, while the broader structure remains positive as long as the price holds above the 4,352.81 area.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 83.84
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 84.56
• Targets: 86.28, then 88.18
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 82.43
• Targets: 80.58, then 78.81
• Note: Oil maintains a strong bullish trend above its moving averages, while a breakout above 84.56 would support further upside momentum. 

EURUSD

• Trend: Bearish correction
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1534
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1556
• Targets: 1.1584, then 1.1619
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1524
• Targets: 1.1490, then 1.1457
• Note: The pair is trading below its moving averages amid clear selling pressure. A move back above 1.1556 would be required to restore bullish momentum.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3505
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3525
• Targets: 1.3558, then 1.3594
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3488
• Targets: 1.3453, then 1.3419
• Note: The pair remains above its moving averages, while holding above 1.3488 keeps the bullish momentum intact.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bullish with a corrective pullback
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 29,656
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,845
• Targets: 29,978, then 30,103
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 29,552
• Targets: 29,384, then 29,174
• Note: the index is undergoing a short-term downside correction within a broader bullish structure, while a breakout above 29,845 would support a resumption of the upward move.