Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The U.S. dollar holds onto its losses following weak U.S. jobs data.
• The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July.
• The probability of a September rate hike falls to 44%.
• Gold holds above $4,300 after strong weekly gains.
• Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz keeps oil prices volatile.
• Brent crude trades near $83, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $78.
• Markets await U.S. inflation data due this week.
• Bitcoin remains range-bound amid continued liquidations and moves by large holders.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held near 99.6 during Monday’s trading session after a sharp decline in the previous session, pressured by weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data that led investors to scale back expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
  • Data released on Friday showed that the U.S. economy unexpectedly shed around 23,000 jobs in July, compared with market expectations for an increase of approximately 80,000 jobs, while the June reading was revised downward to show a gain of only around 20,000 jobs.
  • Downward revisions to employment figures for the previous two months also pointed to greater weakness in the U.S. labor market, heightening concerns about an economic slowdown and prompting markets to reassess the outlook for monetary policy.
  • Market pricing currently implies roughly a 44% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting, down from around 67% just one week earlier, marking a significant shift in investor expectations following the jobs report.
  • Market attention is now turning to U.S. inflation data due later this week, which will be a key factor in determining whether the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates despite weakness in the labor market or continue to wait for further economic data.
  • On the geopolitical front, uncertainty persisted over efforts to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said its talks with Oman were nearing an agreement, while at the same time denying that it was engaged in direct negotiations with the United States.
  • Washington, meanwhile, said the negotiations were making significant progress and that an agreement was close. Tehran, however, continued to demand an end to the U.S. naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, and compensation for war-related damages before agreeing to a final settlement.

• Gold:
  • Gold held above $4,300 per ounce during Monday trading after surging more than 7% last week, supported by unexpected weakness in the U.S. labor market and declining expectations for further interest rate hikes.
  • The loss of U.S. jobs in July strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious policy stance in the coming months, easing pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset.
  • The precious metal also benefited from the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar, as a softer greenback makes gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies.
  • Meanwhile, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided additional support for safe-haven demand, further underpinning gold prices.
  • Despite the rise in oil prices, gold managed to retain its gains, as the impact of weak employment data and easing interest-rate expectations outweighed concerns that higher energy costs could reignite inflationary pressures.
  • Upcoming U.S. inflation data remains the key driver for gold this week. A softer-than-expected reading could further strengthen expectations for monetary easing and support gold prices, while a stronger reading may revive concerns about tighter monetary policy and weigh on the metal.

• Oil:
  • Oil prices posted modest gains at the start of the week, with Brent crude trading near $83 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $78 per barrel.
  • The move came amid ongoing uncertainty over a potential agreement between Iran and Oman to restore normal shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz, a development that could pave the way for millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude to return to global markets.
  • At the same time, geopolitical risks remained elevated after Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) reported that three vessels transiting the Strait had come under attack, while reports indicated that Iran had targeted ships it considers hostile.
  • Iran-backed Houthi forces also announced a large-scale attack on Saudi-aligned forces in Yemen, keeping concerns over maritime security in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf firmly in focus.
  • President Donald Trump reaffirmed that negotiations remain ongoing, although key disagreements over the terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz have yet to be fully resolved.
  • Oil prices pared part of their gains following reports that the United States is prepared to lift its naval blockade once commercial shipping through the Strait resumes without restrictions.
  • Despite the recent rebound, crude prices still posted a weekly decline of more than 7%, highlighting the market’s continued sensitivity to any new diplomatic or military developments in the region.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin has remained range-bound over the past two months, with $65,300 serving as the key weekly resistance level, while the monthly opening price near $62,700 continues to act as an important support zone.
  • If Bitcoin fails to establish a sustained move above $65,300, it could retest the $62,700 support area. Conversely, a decisive breakout and consolidation above resistance may pave the way for an advance toward $66,900.
  • Meanwhile, a major Bitcoin whale sold approximately 7,513 BTC worth around $486.9 million over the past three weeks, including roughly 1,019 BTC liquidated during a single seven-hour trading session.
  • The most recent tranche of sales was valued at approximately $66.4 million, highlighting the continued activity of large holders and their potential influence on market liquidity and short-term price action.
  • Coinglass data showed approximately $113 million in short-position liquidations over the past 24 hours, contributing to roughly $160 million in total liquidations across the cryptocurrency market.
  • The surge in liquidations highlights the market’s continued sensitivity to sudden price swings, particularly as Bitcoin remains confined within a relatively tight trading range that could trigger accelerated price movement once broken.
  • Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains closely tied to its ability to decisively break above the $65,300 resistance level, while global liquidity conditions and expectations for U.S. interest rates continue to be key drivers of market direction.

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

No major economic data releases scheduled for today.

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 4,335.51
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,351.53
• Targets: 4,383.30, then 4,418.45
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,310.02
• Targets: 4,275.83, then 4,243.10
• Note: Gold remains in an uptrend and continues to trade above its key moving averages. Holding above 4,310.02 supports the continuation of positive momentum and keeps the bullish outlook intact.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Corrective Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 79.77
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 80.85
• Targets: 82.57, then 84.47
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 78.72
• Targets: 76.87, then 75.10
• Note: Price continues to recover above its short-term moving averages, but a decisive break above 80.85 is required to confirm further upside momentum. Until then, the current advance is viewed as a corrective rebound within the broader market structure.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bullish with a Short-Term Pullback
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.1549
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1566
• Targets: 1.1594, then 1.1629
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1536
• Targets: 1.1500, then 1.1467
• Note: The pair continues to trade above its key moving averages despite the current pullback. A breakout above 1.1566 would reinforce the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a continuation toward higher resistance levels.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.3487
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3508
• Targets: 1.3541, then 1.3577
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3473
• Targets: 1.3436, then 1.3402
• Note: The pair continues to trade above its moving averages, and holding above 1.3473 keeps the bullish scenario intact.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 29,797
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,903
• Targets: 30,035, then 30,161
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 29,610
• Targets: 29,442, then 29,232
• Note: Price continues to maintain bullish momentum and is trading above its key moving averages. A breakout above 29,903 would reinforce the positive outlook and support a continuation of the upward move.