Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The U.S. Dollar Index holds near 99.95 as markets await the U.S. jobs report.
• Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
• Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are reigniting inflation concerns across financial markets.
• Gold holds above $4,200 as investors await labor market data.
• Iran is considering new restrictions on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Brent crude trades near $83 per barrel, while WTI hovers around $78 per barrel.
• Ongoing regional tensions continue to provide support for oil prices.
• Bitcoin is showing signs of accumulation as on-chain risk indicators decline.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held steady near 99.95 in Friday trading after rebounding in the previous session, as investors awaited the July U.S. employment report for fresh signals on labor market strength and the expected path of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
  • Today’s jobs report carries significant importance amid growing commentary from Federal Reserve officials about the possibility of further interest rate increases if inflationary pressures remain elevated. Financial markets are currently pricing in a roughly 25-basis-point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.
  • Reports also indicated that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh would be prepared to support a rate increase next month if upcoming inflation readings continue to show persistent price pressures, increasing market sensitivity to any surprises in employment and wage data.
  • The dollar received additional support from the rebound in oil prices as tensions escalated once again in the Strait of Hormuz, reviving concerns that higher energy costs could fuel U.S. inflation.

• Geopolitical Events:
  • On the geopolitical front, reports indicated that Iran targeted what it described as “hostile targets” within the Strait of Hormuz following explosions near Qeshm Island.
  • Tehran is also reportedly considering a range of new measures governing the transit of U.S., Israeli, and other vessels belonging to countries it classifies as hostile.
  • The proposed measures could require certain countries to pay compensation before their ships are permitted to transit the strait, while violations may be subject to penalties of up to 20% of the value of the cargo carried onboard. Iran has also linked the full reopening of the waterway to the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.
  • Meanwhile, U.S. officials reiterated their confidence in the possibility of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. However, financial markets remained cautious amid ongoing military tensions and persistent risks to maritime navigation in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

• Gold:
  • Gold held above $4,200 per ounce in Friday trading, pausing after a strong rally as investors awaited the U.S. employment report for fresh signals on the outlook for interest rates.
  • The precious metal continues to benefit from ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and sustained demand for safe-haven assets. However, rising oil prices are also reviving inflation concerns, which could support tighter U.S. monetary policy and limit further gains in gold.
  • Chinese institutions have continued to build long-term positions in gold-backed assets, using the metal as a hedge against volatility in technology stocks and broader economic risks, while purchases by the central bank remain ongoing.
  • The U.S. jobs report remains the key catalyst for today’s session. Strong employment and wage growth data could reinforce expectations of a September rate hike and weigh on gold, while weaker-than-expected figures may support the metal by reducing expectations for further monetary tightening.

• Oil:
  • Oil prices extended their gains as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz supported the market, with Brent crude trading near $83 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $78 per barrel.
  • The primary catalyst for the advance was the start of a review by an Iranian parliamentary committee of proposed legislation that would impose stricter conditions on vessel traffic through the strait, including a ban on the passage of U.S. and Israeli ships and compensation requirements for certain countries before they are allowed to use the waterway.
  • Tehran has also proposed penalties of up to 20% of the value of a vessel’s cargo for violations, while reiterating that the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains contingent on the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.
  • Regional risks intensified further after Yemen’s Houthi movement announced attacks on Saudi military positions, reviving concerns over maritime security in the Red Sea in addition to the ongoing risks across the Persian Gulf.
  • At the same time, the United States continues to maintain that a diplomatic agreement with Iran remains achievable, preventing markets from fully pricing in a worst-case scenario of a major supply disruption.
  • Oil prices remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding negotiations and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Any escalation in transit restrictions could drive crude prices higher, while a diplomatic breakthrough could trigger a rapid decline in the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in the market.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin is showing increasing signs of long-term accumulation, even as its short-term price action remains influenced by global liquidity conditions and U.S. monetary policy.
  • On-chain data indicates that 41 out of 45 key metrics are currently positioned within their two lowest historical bands, while the Glassnode Cycle Composite has fallen to around 19.9, its lowest reading since late 2022.
  • Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio has declined to approximately 0.031, placing it near the 3rd percentile of its historical range, suggesting significantly lower selling pressure compared with previous market cycles.
  • At the same time, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stated that it would remain capable of meeting its obligations even in a hypothetical scenario where Bitcoin falls to $5,000. The company noted that it has raised roughly $65 billion to acquire Bitcoin, with the majority of the funding sourced through non-debt financing structures.
  • Current market conditions point to relatively low volatility and reduced trading costs, which may facilitate the establishment of larger positions. However, subdued liquidity could also amplify price movements if Bitcoin breaks through key technical levels.
  • Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to today’s U.S. employment data, as stronger expectations for higher interest rates could tighten liquidity conditions and weigh on risk assets.
  • Conversely, weaker-than-expected labor market data may strengthen expectations for future monetary easing, improving investor sentiment and supporting demand for Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

From the United States

• Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) – July — 15:30
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) – July — 15:30
• U.S. Unemployment Rate – July — 15:30

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,264
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,279
• Targets: 4,311, then 4,346
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,238
• Targets: 4,203, then 4,171
• Note: Gold remains in an uptrend and continues to trade above its key moving averages. Sustained price action above 4,238 keeps the bullish outlook intact and supports a move toward fresh highs.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Corrective Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 79.87
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 80.45
• Targets: 82.17, then 84.08
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 78.32
• Targets: 76.47, then 74.70
• Note: Crude oil has successfully reclaimed its short-term moving averages and is now testing a key resistance level at 80.45. A decisive breakout above this level would strengthen the bullish momentum and support a continuation toward higher targets.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bearish in the short term
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1520
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1540
• Targets: 1.1568, then 1.1604
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1508
• Targets: 1.1474, then 1.1441
• Note: The pair remains below its key moving averages, keeping downside pressure in place. A sustained move above 1.1540 would be needed to invalidate the bearish bias and signal a potential bullish reversal.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Neutral with a bearish bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3452
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3475
• Targets: 1.3508, then 1.3544
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3439
• Targets: 1.3403, then 1.3369
• Note: The pair is trading within a narrow range, indicating a lack of directional conviction. A breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support is likely to determine the next significant move.

NAS 100

• Trend: Short-Term Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 29,386
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,517
• Targets: 29,649, then 29,775
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 29,223
• Targets: 29,056, then 28,846
• Note: Price remains below key moving averages, keeping short-term bearish pressure intact unless it breaks above 29,517.