Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The dollar index stays below 100 as rate-hike expectations ease.
• Hormuz deal hopes weigh on oil prices.
• September Fed hike odds fall to 57%.
• Gold holds near $4,100 amid diplomatic uncertainty.
• Brent trades near $79; WTI near $75.
• Markets await ADP and U.S. services data.
• Bitcoin hovers around $63,675 amid high volatility.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained below the 100 level during Wednesday’s trading session, coming under renewed pressure after reports suggested that the United States and Iran were nearing a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The prospect of a deal triggered a sharp decline in oil prices and eased concerns over inflation and further monetary policy tightening.
  • On Tuesday, Qatar announced that it had prepared a temporary proposal aimed at restoring maritime traffic through the strait, while both Washington and Tehran indicated progress in negotiations. These developments helped alleviate fears of supply disruptions and a renewed surge in energy prices.
  • S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also stated that an agreement could be reached as early as Tuesday or Wednesday, boosting optimism that a temporary resolution may be achieved in the near term.
  • The improvement in market sentiment followed President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel a planned military operation against Iran, giving diplomatic efforts additional time while reiterating the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as possible.
  • Meanwhile, reports indicated that Iran is considering a proposal that would allow European countries to participate in mine-clearing operations in the waterway. Tehran also stated that ongoing discussions with Oman on securing safe shipping routes are making progress.
  • The developments had an immediate impact on U.S. monetary policy expectations, with markets lowering the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to around 57%, down from approximately 67% the previous day.
  • Lower oil prices and easing inflationary pressures suggest that the Federal Reserve may face less urgency to raise interest rates. However, the final policy decision will remain dependent on upcoming economic data, particularly labor market and inflation indicators.
  • Investors are now focused on the ADP Employment Report, along with the Services PMI and the ISM Services Index, for fresh clues on the strength of the U.S. economy.
  • The U.S. dollar also extended its losses against the Japanese yen after both the United States and Japan signaled their willingness to intervene in currency markets again if necessary, keeping pressure on the greenback.

• Gold:
  • Gold held near $4,100 per ounce on Wednesday as investors continued to assess reports suggesting that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may be nearing completion.
  • The precious metal has been supported by easing expectations for further U.S. rate hikes, as lower oil prices have reduced inflation concerns and diminished the likelihood of near-term monetary tightening.
  • At the same time, demand remained underpinned by inflows into gold-backed ETFs in China, with institutional investors continuing to support prices above the $4,000 level.
  • However, gains were capped as improving diplomatic conditions reduced safe-haven demand, particularly if an agreement leads to smoother shipping flows and lower geopolitical risks.
  • Gold’s direction in the coming sessions will largely depend on U.S. labor market data, the trajectory of oil prices, and whether negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz result in a formal agreement.
  • Weaker employment figures or softer services-sector data could further reduce interest rate expectations and provide additional support for gold.
  • Conversely, stronger-than-expected economic data may renew pressure on the precious metal by reinforcing expectations for tighter monetary policy

• Oil:
  • Oil prices extended their decline for a third consecutive session, with Brent crude trading near $79 per barrel and WTI crude falling to around $75 per barrel.
  • The pullback came amid growing optimism that a temporary agreement could be reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore shipping through the strategic waterway.
  • Qatar announced that it had prepared a temporary proposal, while both Washington and Tehran confirmed progress in negotiations, reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had supported oil prices in recent weeks.
  • Iran is also reportedly considering a proposal that would allow European countries to participate in mine-clearing operations, while talks with Oman on securing shipping routes continue to advance.
  • In the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia continued talks with the Houthis through Omani mediators in an effort to prevent further escalation and safeguard shipping routes and energy infrastructure.
  • Oil has now posted a weekly decline of more than 10%, after surging in July on concerns over supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
  • Despite the recent pullback, prices remain vulnerable to sharp swings, as any setback in negotiations or renewed military tensions could revive supply concerns and trigger another rally in crude markets.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin traded near $63,675, down around 0.2%, amid elevated volatility and increased activity in the futures market.
  • Markets saw approximately $164 million in short liquidations over the past 24 hours, while open interest continued to rise throughout July, highlighting ongoing leverage-driven trading activity.
  • Bitcoin faces immediate resistance in the $66,200–$66,300 range, with the next upside targets located near $69,000 and $72,000. If bullish momentum persists, the price could extend toward $76,000.
  • On the downside, key support lies between $59,317 and $62,436, while a break below $63,276 could increase the risk of a short-term pullback.
  • Market sentiment was also weighed down by reports of a Coldcard wallet breach that resulted in the theft of approximately $130 million worth of Bitcoin. The incident was accompanied by increased transfers to major centralized exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance.
  • Rising exchange inflows are often viewed as a potential signal of selling pressure, although they may also reflect portfolio rebalancing or security-related asset movements by affected investors.
  • Overall, Bitcoin needs to break above the $66,200–$66,300 resistance zone and maintain trading above it to confirm a renewed bullish trend. Until then, price action is likely to remain volatile and vulnerable to pullbacks toward lower support levels.

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

From the United States

• ADP Nonfarm Private Employment Change (July) – 15:15
• S&P Services PMI (July) – 16:45
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (July) – 17:00
• U.S. Crude Oil Inventories – 17:30
• Speech by U.S. President Donald Trump – 23:30

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 4,165
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,182
• Targets: 4,213 then 4,249
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,140
• Targets: 4,106 then 4,073
• Note: Gold remains in a strong uptrend after breaking through multiple resistance levels. Sustained trading above 4,140 supports a continuation toward new highs

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 76.51
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 77.69
• Targets: 79.41 then 81.31
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 75.56
• Targets: 73.71 then 71.93
• Note: The broader trend remains bearish following the recent sharp decline. Any rebound is likely to be corrective unless the price breaks above 77.69.

EURUSD

• Trend: Neutral to Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.1532
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1549
• Targets: 1.1577 then 1.1612
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1517
• Targets: 1.1482 then 1.1449
• Note: The pair continues to trade above a key support zone. Holding above 1.1517 keeps the bullish outlook intact and supports further upside potential. 

GBPUSD

• Trend: Neutral to Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.3451
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3471
• Targets: 1.3506 then 1.3543
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3423
• Targets: 1.3387 then 1.3353
• Note: The pair remains supported above its moving averages. A break above 1.3471 could reignite bullish momentum and open the door for further gains.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 29,830
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,972
• Targets: 30,105 then 30,230
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 29,679
• Targets: 29,511 then 29,301
• Note: The bullish trend remains strong, with the price continuing to form higher highs. The positive scenario remains valid as long as the price holds above 29,679.