Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• Dollar steadies near 100 as investors reassess Federal Reserve rate outlook.
• Markets are pricing in a 65% probability of a U.S. interest rate hike in September.
• Gold is trading near $4,050 amid close monitoring of developments in the Middle East.
• Trump describes his offer for talks as Iran’s last opportunity.
• Iran denies the existence of direct negotiations with the United States.
• Oil continues to decline as supply outlooks improve and negotiations progress.
• Brent crude is trading near $84 per barrel, while WTI crude is hovering around $80 per barrel.
• Bitcoin is holding a key support level amid ongoing volatility and continued exchange inflows.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held steady near the 100 level on Tuesday after recovering part of its recent losses in the previous session, as investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook amid ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East.
  • Market pricing currently implies approximately a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point U.S. interest rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, following the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave rates unchanged at its July meeting.
  • Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams stated that monetary policy remains appropriately positioned, while expressing expectations that inflation will begin to moderate in the second half of the year, helping to ease concerns over the need for more aggressive monetary tightening.
  • Despite these remarks, markets remain closely focused on incoming U.S. economic data, particularly amid elevated energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions, as any renewed inflationary pressures could strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
  • Investor attention is now turning to the JOLTS Job Openings report, which may provide fresh insights into the strength of the U.S. labor market and the resilience of labor demand, alongside international trade data.
  • In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar regained some ground against the Japanese yen after the United States and Japan reaffirmed coordinated efforts to support the Japanese currency.
  • However, the possibility of further intervention by Japanese authorities has kept traders cautious.

• Geopolitical Developments:
  • On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that his offer to hold talks represents Iran’s last opportunity to reach an agreement, expressing confidence that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen in the near future.
  • In contrast, Iran denied the existence of direct negotiations with the United States, but said that ongoing discussions with Oman regarding increased shipping traffic through the strait are making progress.
  • This divergence highlights the continued uncertainty surrounding the diplomatic path forward. Any meaningful progress in negotiations could put further downward pressure on oil prices and help ease inflationary pressures, while a breakdown in talks could trigger a renewed geopolitical risk premium in energy markets.

• Gold:
  • Gold held near $4,050 per ounce during Tuesday’s trading session, moving within a narrow range as supportive and bearish factors remained largely balanced.
  • The precious metal continued to draw support from uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran talks, particularly amid ongoing questions over the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the stability of global shipping routes.
  • However, expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike in September limited gold’s upside potential, as higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.
  • Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar’s stability near the 100 level also constrained gold’s movement, as the metal received little additional support from currency weakness.
  • Gold’s direction in the coming sessions is likely to be driven by labor market data, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and developments in negotiations between the United States and Iran.
  • Easing inflation or improving prospects for a diplomatic agreement could support a rebound in gold by reducing expectations for further interest rate hikes. Conversely, stronger-than-expected economic data or a renewed surge in oil prices could keep pressure on the precious metal.

• Oil:
  • Oil prices stabilized near current levels after a sharp decline in the previous session, with Brent crude trading near $84 per barrel and WTI crude hovering around $80 per barrel.
  • The pullback followed the resumption of diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran, boosting hopes for an agreement that could lead to the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and improve regional energy flows.
  • President Donald Trump said his offer for talks represents Tehran’s last opportunity to reach a deal, while Iran stated that its discussions with Oman regarding navigation through the strait are making progress, despite denying any direct contacts with Washington.
  • Supply outlooks also improved after Turkey and Iraq extended a key oil pipeline agreement for an additional year, supporting alternative export routes and reducing reliance on maritime corridors affected by regional tensions.
  • At the same time, Kazakhstan resumed oil flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) following a brief disruption, restoring a key export route for crude supplies to global markets.
  • Supply expectations were further supported after OPEC+ approved another modest production increase, continuing the gradual reversal of output cuts that began in 2023 and reinforcing expectations of stronger supply availability in the months ahead.
  • Despite the recent decline, oil prices remain vulnerable to significant volatility. Any breakdown in negotiations or renewed military tensions could quickly reignite geopolitical risk premiums and push crude prices higher once again.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin continued to trade above key support levels following its recent corrective pullback, while large transfers to cryptocurrency exchanges persisted in the aftermath of the Coldcard wallet security breach.
  • According to data from CryptoQuant, exchange inflows reached approximately 34,932 BTC on Friday and 8,768 BTC on Sunday, with deposits primarily concentrated in transactions ranging from 1 to 10 BTC.
  • Rising exchange inflows are typically viewed as a signal of increased selling pressure, although they may also reflect asset redistribution or security-related transfers involving affected wallets.
  • Bitcoin is currently facing immediate resistance in the $67,000–$68,000 range. A decisive breakout and sustained move above this zone would be an important signal that bullish momentum is reasserting itself.
  • If Bitcoin successfully breaks above this resistance zone, the rally could extend toward $72,000, followed by the $80,000–$84,000 range. Conversely, failure to hold current levels could result in a retest of the $60,000–$61,000 support area.
  • Institutional buying activity has also remained present, although weaker inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Friday limited the strength of the bullish trend.
  • Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and global liquidity conditions, as well as movements in the Japanese yen, energy prices, and political developments, all of which can directly influence investor appetite for higher-risk assets.

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

From the United States

Jobs Openings (JOLTS)- 17:00

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Neutral
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 4,056
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,076
• Targets: 4,108, then 4,143
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,035
• Targets: 4,000, then 3,968.
• Note: Gold remains range-bound between key support and resistance levels. A breakout above 4,076 would confirm bullish momentum, while a move below 4,035 would signal increased downside pressure and a potential continuation lower.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 81.57
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 82.08
• Targets: 82.92, then 84.64
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 80.79
• Targets: 78.94, then 77.17
• Note: The trend remains bearish, with downside pressure likely to persist unless price breaks above 82.08.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bearish (Corrective)
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.1505
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1526
• Targets: 1.1554, then 1.1590
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1494
• Targets: 1.1460, then 1.1427
• Note: The pair remains under short-term moving averages, and a break below 1.1494 would likely extend the corrective downside move.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bearish (Corrective)
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.3429
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3449
• Targets: 1.3487, then 1.3524
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3404
• Targets: 1.3369, then 1.3335
• Note: The pair is consolidating after breaking its short-term uptrend, and bullish momentum is unlikely to return unless price breaks above 1.3449

NAS 100

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 28,937
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,054
• Targets: 29,186, then 29,312
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 28,760
• Targets: 28,593, then 28,383
• Note: The uptrend remains intact with price trading above its moving averages, though a key resistance level at 29,054 may determine the next directional move.