Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The U.S. dollar extends its losses for a fifth consecutive session as Japan intervenes to support the yen.
• Gold prices rise amid expectations of the resumption of U.S.–Iran peace talks
• Markets await U.S. labor market data due later this week.
• The Fed leaves interest rates unchanged while maintaining expectations of a rate hike in September.
• Oil prices decline as negotiations between Washington and Tehran resume.
• OPEC+ continues its gradual increase in oil production.
• Bitcoin remains under pressure amid regulatory developments and volatile fund flows.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to around 99.5 during Monday’s trading session, extending its losses for a fifth consecutive session, after Japan confirmed that it had conducted coordinated yen-buying interventions in cooperation with the United States. The move was aimed at curbing the Japanese currency’s weakness.
  • Data released by the Bank of Japan showed that authorities spent up to $58.97 billion to support the yen. Japanese officials also reaffirmed their readiness to carry out additional interventions, if necessary, in coordination with U.S. authorities, adding further pressure on the dollar.
  • Meanwhile, investors are bracing for a busy week of U.S. economic data releases, highlighted by Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, one of the Federal Reserve’s key indicators for assessing labor market strength and determining the appropriate course of monetary policy.
  • The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting, despite opposition from three members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), who argued that delaying further rate hikes could ultimately necessitate more aggressive monetary tightening at a later stage.
  • Market pricing currently implies a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting, keeping expectations of a hawkish monetary policy stance intact despite the dollar’s recent decline.
  • On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that peace talks with Iran are set to resume. He noted that several U.S. allies in the Middle East, particularly the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, have urged prioritizing diplomatic solutions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
  • These developments helped ease concerns over potential supply disruptions and supported a more stable outlook for global energy markets.

• Gold:
  • Gold climbed above $4,050 per ounce during Monday’s trading session, recovering part of the losses recorded in the previous session, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower oil prices.
  • The primary catalyst for the precious metal came after the announcement that peace talks between the United States and Iran will resume, helping to ease inflation concerns as declining energy prices reduce upward pressure on consumer prices.
  • Golda also benefited from the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar, as a softer dollar makes the metal more attractive to investors holding other currencies.
  • However, gold’s gains remain limited as markets continue to price in a high probability of a U.S. interest rate hike in September, a factor that typically weighs on non-yielding assets such as gold.
  • Looking ahead, gold’s performance this week will largely depend on the outcome of key U.S. labor market data releases, which could reshape investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy path

• Oil:
  • Oil prices declined at the start of the week, with Brent crude trading near $83 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) holding around $79 per barrel.
  • The pullback followed the announcement that peace talks between the United States and Iran are set to resume, after a planned military strike against Tehran was called off. The development eased concerns over prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East.
  • Oil prices had previously surged by more than 23% in July, driven by renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran and expanding supply disruptions stretching from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea.
  • Meanwhile, leading OPEC+ producers agreed to another gradual increase in production quotas as part of the ongoing restoration of supply cuts implemented in 2023. The group also signaled that output could be increased further should geopolitical conditions stabilize.
  • Despite the recent decline in prices, markets remain closely focused on developments in the U.S.–Iran negotiations, as any setback in the talks could revive concerns over global oil supplies and potentially drive crude prices higher once again

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin’s network recorded a notable increase in small-value transfers, with approximately 39,600 BTC moved in transactions of less than 1 BTC over a single day. This marked the highest level for this category of transfers since November 2022, following developments related to the Coldcard wallet security breach.
  • On the regulatory front, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suspended trading of QBTC cash-settled Bitcoin options on the NASDAQ PHLX exchange pending completion of its review of an application submitted by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The SEC has set August 24 as the deadline for public comments on the proposal.
  • Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s recent price decline resulted in MicroStrategy reporting approximately $8.22 billion in unrealized (mark-to-market) losses for the quarter ended July 30, 2026. Despite these losses, the company continued to maintain its long-term accumulation strategy, holding roughly 846,000 BTC following purchases completed during the second quarter.
  • Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s performance is expected to remain closely tied to U.S. regulatory developments, as well as the trajectory of Federal Reserve monetary policy and broader investor appetite for high-risk assets.

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

From the United States

Manufacturing PMI- 16:45

ISM Manufacturing PMI- 17:00

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Sideways with a Bearish Bias
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 4,062.57
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,085.12
• Targets: 4,116.89, then 4,152.04
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,043.61
• Targets: 4,009.42, then 3,976.69
• Note: Gold remains range-bound below its moving averages. A break above 4,085.12 would confirm bullish momentum, while a move below 4,043.61 would signal further downside pressure.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 80.71
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 81.88
• Targets: 83.60, then 85.50
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 79.75
• Targets: 77.90, then 76.13
• Note: The short-term trend remains bearish as price continues to trade below its moving averages. A break above 81.88 is needed to confirm a shift in momentum, while a move below 79.75 would reinforce the prevailing downside trend.  

EURUSD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.15347
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.15494
• Targets: 1.15774, then 1.16126
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.15172
• Targets: 1.14829, then 1.14500
• Note: Price remains above its moving averages, supporting the bullish trend. A break above 1.15494 would confirm further upside, while a move below 1.15172 could trigger a deeper correction. 

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.34719
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.34968
• Targets: 1.35297, then 1.35661
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.34464
• Targets: 1.34110, then 1.33771
• Note: Price remains above its moving averages, keeping the bullish trend intact. A break above 1.34968 would confirm further upside momentum, while a move below 1.34464 could trigger a deeper pullback.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 28,517.40
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 28,673.10
• Targets: 28,805.86, then 28,931.06
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 28,379.98
• Targets: 28,212.01, then 28,002.24
• Note: The index maintains a positive bias, but a break above 28,673.10 is needed to confirm continuation of the upward move. A break below 28,379.98 would signal a short-term loss of momentum.