Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The U.S. dollar falls below the 101 level following the Federal Reserve’s decision.
• The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged.
• Three Fed policymakers dissented in favor of a rate hike.
• Gold rises toward $4,100 after the Fed holds interest rates steady.
• Rising tensions between the United States and Iran revive inflation concerns.
• Oil maintains its gains after a strong rally in the previous trading session.
• Bitcoin trades near $64,348 amid continued capital outflows from investment funds.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held below the 101 mark on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session after the Federal Reserve opted to leave interest rates unchanged.
  • The decision came despite mounting inflationary pressures linked to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices, leading investors to reassess expectations for the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.
  • Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting highlighted divisions among policymakers, with three members advocating for a rate increase, underscoring persistent concerns that inflation could remain above the Fed’s target for an extended period.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stressed that maintaining current interest rates should not be interpreted as a pause in the policy cycle or a signal that future adjustments are off the table.
  • He noted that the central bank will continue to closely monitor incoming economic data—including inflation trends, labor market developments, and overall economic activity—before determining its next policy move.
  • He further noted that persistently elevated inflation over the forecast period could warrant a rate increase, signaling that the Federal Reserve has not ruled out additional policy tightening despite its decision to keep rates unchanged.
  • At the same time, market participants are turning their attention to upcoming U.S. economic releases, including GDP figures and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation.
  • The outcome of these reports is expected to play a key role in shaping expectations for future monetary policy, influencing whether policymakers consider further rate hikes or maintain the current policy stance for longer.
  • Elsewhere, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are both widely anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged this week as central banks continue to balance inflation risks against signs of slowing economic growth.

• Geopolitical Developments:
  • On the geopolitical front, market concerns resurfaced following reports that the United States carried out new airstrikes against Iran in response to attacks targeting U.S. forces in the region.
  • President Donald Trump pledged a forceful response after the attack on American troops in Jordan, raising fears of a broader military escalation and renewed disruptions to global energy supplies.
  • Meanwhile, tensions between Washington and Tehran continued to cloud prospects for a potential agreement, with Iran maintaining its position on retaining control over the Strait of Hormuz.
  • As a result, concerns over shipping routes and oil supply security remained elevated, providing continued support to energy prices.

• Gold:
  • Gold climbed to nearly $4,100 per ounce during Thursday’s trading session, extending gains from the previous day after the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged.
  • The Fed’s decision provided support for the precious metal, as holding rates steady temporarily eased concerns over rising bond yields and the higher opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.
  • The metal also benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar, with the Dollar Index falling below the 101 level. A softer dollar typically makes gold more affordable for holders of other currencies, helping to boost global demand.
  • At the same time, renewed tensions between the United States and Iran increased investor demand for safe-haven assets, further supporting gold prices amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
  • However, gold’s upside remained relatively limited, as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that policymakers remain prepared to raise interest rates if inflationary pressures persist.
  • In addition, higher oil prices could contribute to renewed inflationary pressures, potentially prompting markets to increase expectations for tighter monetary policy in the months ahead.
  • Looking forward, the direction of gold prices is likely to depend on upcoming U.S. inflation and growth data, as well as developments in the Middle East conflict and movements in both oil prices and the U.S. dollar.

• Oil:
  • Oil prices remained firmly supported during Thursday’s session, building on the previous day’s rally of more than 6% as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran continued to fuel supply concerns.
  • Brent crude hovered around $92 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark WTI crude traded in the $84–$85 per barrel range.
  • Market sentiment was bolstered after President Donald Trump vowed a decisive response to the attack on American troops in Jordan, raising the likelihood of additional military operations targeting Iran or its regional allies.
  • At the same time, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remained a key source of support for oil prices. Iran’s insistence on maintaining control over the strategic chokepoint sustained concerns over the potential disruption of a critical route for global crude exports.
  • Geopolitical risks were further amplified by developments in the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi forces threatened to blockade Saudi Arabia, intensifying fears over the security of maritime trade routes and vital oil infrastructure throughout the region.
  • Saudi Arabia also participated alongside U.S. forces in strikes targeting Iran-backed militant positions in Iraq, underscoring the increasingly broad regional dimensions of the conflict.
  • In the United States, commercial crude inventories recorded their steepest weekly draw since mid-June, pointing to stronger underlying demand and tighter supply conditions in the physical market, which helped reinforce upward pressure on prices.
  • At the same time, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) declined for an eighteenth straight week, falling to its lowest level since 1983. The continued depletion of emergency stockpiles has raised concerns about the country’s ability to respond effectively to any future supply disruptions.
  • Going forward, crude oil markets are likely to remain highly responsive to geopolitical developments. A further escalation in regional hostilities could push prices higher by increasing concerns over supply security, while renewed diplomatic efforts could ease tensions and reduce the risk premium currently supporting oil prices.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin traded near $64,348, fluctuating within an intraday range of approximately $62,715 to $64,639.
  • Price action remained subdued as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to experience net outflows, with cumulative withdrawals exceeding $500 million over the past four trading sessions.
  • During the previous session alone, spot ETFs recorded roughly $49 million in net outflows, highlighting a moderation in short-term institutional demand compared with periods that saw sustained positive inflows.
  • Meanwhile, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose by around 1.4% to approximately $2.20 trillion. However, 24-hour trading volume declined by about 4.5%, suggesting that the increase in market value was not accompanied by a meaningful rise in liquidity or overall trading activity.
  • Historically, Bitcoin has tended to attract the first wave of institutional capital inflows, with liquidity often rotating later into Ethereum and other large-cap digital assets.
  • Some market observers believe the cryptocurrency market may be entering the early stages of such a rotation, as investors gradually shift capital from Bitcoin toward Ethereum and other major altcoins.
  • However, the ongoing outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs could limit the strength of any bullish momentum, particularly amid continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. interest rates and the outlook for monetary policy.
  • From a technical perspective, the $65,000 level remains a key near-term resistance zone, while the area around $62,700 serves as an important support level.
  • A sustained break below that threshold could trigger additional selling pressure and increase downside risks in the short term.

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

Eurozone

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q2 — 12:00

United Kingdom

• Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (July) — 14:00

United States

• Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index MoM (July) — 15:30
• Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index YoY (July) — 15:30
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q2 — 15:30
• Initial Jobless Claims — 15:30
• Federal Reserve Balance Sheet — 23:30

Smart Technical Analysis — Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%.

The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded.

The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 4,033
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,061
• Targets: 4,093, then 4,128
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,019
• Targets: 3,985, then 3,953
• Note: Gold remains under selling pressure after falling back below its moving averages. A break above 4,061 would support a bullish recovery, while failure to reclaim this level keeps the downside bias intact.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 86.79
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 87.66
• Targets: 89.38, then 91.28
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 85.53
• Targets: 83.68, then 81.91
• Note: Oil has regained bullish momentum after breaking above its moving averages. A move above 87.66 would confirm further upside.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.1442
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1463
• Targets: 1.1491, then 1.1526
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1431
• Targets: 1.1396, then 1.1363
• Note: The short-term trend remains positive following the strong breakout. Any pullback toward 1.1431 is considered a corrective move as long as this support level holds.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Neutral to Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.3333
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3369
• Targets: 1.3402, then 1.3438
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3319
• Targets: 1.3283, then 1.3249
• Note: The price remains above short-term moving averages, maintaining a positive bias. A breakout above 1.3369 is key to confirming further upside.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 27,325
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 27,531
• Targets: 27,664, then 27,789
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 27,238
• Targets: 27,070, then 26,860
• Note: The overall trend remains clearly bearish, with price trading below key moving averages. Any rebound before a break above 27,531 is likely to be a corrective move rather than a trend reversal.