Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Headlines:

• The U.S. dollar remains firm as the U.S.-Iran conflict continues.
• Higher oil prices boost inflation and rate hike expectations.
• Markets now price in a 55% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
• Gold holds near $4,000 per ounce amid rising U.S. Treasury yields.
• Brent crude trades near $88 per barrel, while WTI hovers around $82 per barrel.
• Reduced shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is providing support to oil prices.
• Bitcoin remains range-bound amid declining crypto fund assets.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. dollar Index and Monatery Policy:
  • The U.S. Dollar Index traded near the 101 level on Tuesday, extending gains for a third consecutive session as ongoing hostilities between the United States and Iran drove oil prices higher, reviving concerns over inflation and the prospect of tighter U.S. monetary policy.
  • S. strikes on Iran entered their tenth consecutive day, while President Donald Trump warned that Tehran would be held responsible for the deaths of three U.S. service members during recent clashes, heightening concerns that military operations could persist and broaden in the days ahead.
  • Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthis announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, raising further concerns over energy shipments and Red Sea shipping routes, particularly amid ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a decline in vessel traffic through the region.
  • On the diplomatic front, Iran indicated that mediators have proposed steps to ease tensions with the United States following several days of conflict. Reports pointed to the possibility of a temporary 10-day ceasefire, although markets remain cautious as no formal agreement has been confirmed.
  • At the same time, the continued rally in oil prices has pushed U.S. Treasury yields sharply higher this week, as investors worry that rising energy costs could reignite inflationary pressures and force the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer—or potentially tighten policy further.
  • Market pricing now implies a 55% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting, up from 51% a day earlier, as Fed officials enter the pre-meeting blackout period ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
  • Despite rising expectations for additional tightening in September, markets still broadly anticipate that the Federal Reserve will leave the federal funds rate unchanged at its upcoming meeting, while awaiting further data on inflation, labor market conditions, and energy prices.

• Gold:
  • Gold traded near $4,000 per ounce on Tuesday, holding close to a nine-month low as the combined impact of a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields continued to weigh on prices.
  • While the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has supported demand for safe-haven assets, concerns that higher oil prices could fuel inflation and keep interest rates elevated have had a more pronounced effect on market sentiment.
  • Rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September—now priced at 55%—have further constrained gold’s upside, as higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.
  • Gold remains caught between two opposing forces: safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainty and the headwinds from a stronger dollar, rising yields, and growing expectations of tighter monetary policy. As a result, prices continue to hover around the $4,000 level without a clear recovery trend.

• Oil:
  • Oil prices remained elevated on Tuesday, with Brent crude trading near $88 per barrel and WTI crude around $82 per barrel, as ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran continued to underpin market sentiment.
  • Geopolitical risks intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran would bear responsibility for the deaths of American service members, while Tehran maintained retaliatory operations against targets across the region, fueling concerns over potential disruptions to energy infrastructure and maritime trade routes.
  • Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthis’ announcement of a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia added to supply concerns, increasing uncertainty over oil flows and energy shipments through the Red Sea, a critical artery for global trade and energy transportation.
  • Meanwhile, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped significantly this week following Iranian attacks on vessels over the weekend, raising concerns over global supply flows and keeping upward pressure on crude prices.
  • Although reports suggest a possible 10-day temporary ceasefire, oil markets continue to reflect a geopolitical risk premium due to the lack of a formal agreement and the persistence of military activity near key energy transit routes.

• Bitcoin:
  • Bitcoin is expected to trade within a $60,000–$80,000 range in the near term, with its outlook largely dependent on regulatory developments, U.S. monetary policy, and institutional fund flows.
  • The approval of the CLARITY Act, combined with potential U.S. rate cuts, could provide a catalyst for Bitcoin to move toward the $100,000 level. However, the probability of the legislation passing is currently estimated at 60%–66%, while markets are not pricing in any rate cuts this year.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETF assets have declined from around $104 billion in mid-May to approximately $77 billion, reflecting lower asset valuations and weaker investment momentum compared with previous periods.
  • ETF flows have recently turned positive, recording net inflows of about $273.1 million after nearly $8.2 billion in outflows over the previous eight weeks. While this signals a recovery in demand, it remains insufficient to confirm a sustained bullish trend.
  • Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s company continues to hold around 843,775 Bitcoin but has paused purchases for two weeks, prompting investors to assess whether the move is temporary or reflects increased caution at current price levels.
  • Bitcoin remains down approximately 26% year-to-date and 45% over the past 12 months, highlighting continued market pressure despite recent improvements in institutional demand.

Economic Calendar (GMT+3 / KSA time)

No major economic data releases scheduled for today.

Smart Technical Analysis: Methodology

A primary scenario is proposed for the day, with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. If the primary scenario fails, an alternative scenario becomes active, also with an estimated probability of 60% to 75%. The primary scenario is considered invalid once the price reaches the trigger level for the alternative scenario, at which point the alternative scenario is activated and the primary scenario is disregarded. The scenarios and probabilities presented in this report are based on technical analysis and are intended as reference guidance only. These reports are not a substitute for independent trading decisions. Traders should use them as a supporting tool alongside their own analysis and judgment.

GOLD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,071
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,080
• Targets: 4,112, then 4,147
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,039
• Targets: 4,005, then 3,972

Note: Gold remains bullish after breaking above key moving averages, with a breakout above 4,080 supporting further upside, while a break below 4,039 could trigger a correction.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Short-Term Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 83.96
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 85.45
• Targets: 87.17, then 89.07
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 83.31
• Targets: 81.46, then 79.69
• Note: Oil remains under short-term pressure after breaking below key moving averages. The bearish bias remains intact unless price reclaims the 85.45 resistance level.

EURUSD

• Trend: Neutral
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1418
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1434
• Targets: 1.1462, then 1.1497
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1402
• Targets: 1.1368, then 1.1335
• Note: Price is trading just below key moving averages while attempting to form a short-term base. A breakout above resistance or a break below support will determine the next directional move.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Neutral with a Bullish Bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3446
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3450
• Targets: 1.3467, then 1.3500
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3417
• Targets: 1.3381, then 1.3347
• Note: Price is testing moving average resistance. A sustained move above 1.3450 would support further upside, while a break below 1.3417 would shift momentum back to sellers.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bullish (Short-Term Correction Within a Broader Weak Trend)
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 28,947
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,053
• Targets: 29,185, then 29,311
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 28,768
• Targets: 28,592, then 28,382
• Note: Price has broken above short-term moving averages and is approaching resistance at 29,053. A breakout would confirm further upside in the corrective move, while failure at this level could revive selling pressure.