enDaily Analysis 29/08/2025
Latest Economic Insights
The dollar holds near 97.9 ahead of the release of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Gold holds near $3,410 an ounce, heading for its best monthly performance since April.
Oil falls, heading for its first monthly decline in four months despite a second weekly gain.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports starting interest rate cuts in September, with further cuts expected later.
Bitcoin recovers to $112,000 after a sharp drop, but miner sales raise concerns.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,411.99
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,418.53, targeting 3,427.56 and then 3,435.73.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,400.75, targeting 3,393.76 and then 3,385.41.
Comment: Gold is moving in an ascending channel and testing important resistance, and a breakout could push it to new levels.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 64.085
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 64.364, targeting 64.724 and then 65.072.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 63.462, targeting 63.102 and then 62.672.
Comment: Oil is trading above its moving averages, and a rebound from recent support reinforces the positive outlook.
EURUSD
General trend: sideways bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.16674
Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.16851, targeting 1.17112 and then 1.17318.
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.16428, targeting 1.16254 and then 1.16052.
Comment: The euro is moving between strong support and resistance levels, and a breakout will determine its next direction.
GBPUSD
General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.34987
Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a break and hold above 1.35123, targeting 1.35300 and then 1.35498.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound after breaking and holding below 1.34832, targeting 1.34633 and then 1.34443.
Comment: The pound is trading near equilibrium levels, and a break would give a clearer indication of the upcoming trend.
NAS100
General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,727.25
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,788.00, targeting 23,907.25 and then 24,015.00
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 23,629.13, targeting 23,526.25 and then 23,418.25
Comment: The Nasdaq is in a good uptrend, and a break above resistance could open the door to new levels.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From the United States of America:
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) – July – 15:30.
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) – July – 15:30.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady at 97.9 on Friday after a series of recent declines, with investors focused on today’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, which will determine the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction in September.
Market expectations are for the core index to rise 2.9% year-on-year in July, the fastest rate of growth in five months, which could heighten inflation concerns. Revised data released Thursday showed the US economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the second quarter, driven by investment and trade.
Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller reiterated his support for starting to cut interest rates next month, anticipating further cuts to move toward a more neutral policy. Markets are currently pricing in an 86% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September. Despite these expectations, the dollar index is expected to post its largest monthly decline this year, falling more than 2% against the euro, pound, and yen.
Gold held steady around $3,410 an ounce, maintaining its close proximity to a five-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and increased demand for safe havens amid political and economic uncertainty.
In contrast, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell to $64 a barrel, heading for their first monthly loss in four months despite posting a second weekly gain. The price fluctuations came amid a combination of geopolitical tensions—including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian facilities—and expectations of a global supply surplus amid OPEC+ efforts to restore disrupted capacity and declining US fuel consumption following the summer driving season.
In cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin recovered to $112,000 after hitting a six-week low earlier this week, but a massive sell-off by miners—the fastest in nine months—has kept concerns about its short-term stability.
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